Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

A hallway featuring light walls, dark wood floors, a white bench, wooden stairs, and a lamp with a white shade on the left.

What's the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?

Economy Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group September 11, 2024

It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move.

Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime.

Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision.

Home Sales

In the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below):

Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary.

Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below):

Home Prices

You may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances.

The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedThe one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline.

Mortgage Rates

And the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedAnd this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power.

What This Means for You

What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, let’s connect.

This blog post previously appeared on https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2024/08/27/whats-the-impact-of-presidential-elections-on-the-housing-market?a=106260-312309902871c1f0d820820f58bf8fde. The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. and the Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. and the Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.


Recent Blog Posts

Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

Agent Value

Don’t Fall for These Real Estate Agent Myths

When it’s time to buy or sell a home, one of the most important decisions you’ll make is who you’ll work with as your agent. That choice will have an impact on your en… Read more

For Buyers

The Down Payment Assistance You Didn’t Know About

Most first-time homebuyers qualify for programs that can help with that upfront expense. But few actually take advantage of it.

Mortgage Rates

Falling Mortgage Rates Are Bringing Buyers Back

After months of high rates keeping buyers on the sidelines, things are starting to shift. Rates are already coming down due to a number of economic factors.

A hallway featuring light walls, dark wood floors, a white bench, wooden stairs, and a lamp with a white shade on the left.

Economy

What's the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?

If you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a … Read more

Agent Value

How To Choose a Great Local Real Estate Agent

Selecting the right real estate agent can make a world of difference when buying or selling a home. But how do you find the best one?

Selling Tips

The Number One Mistake Sellers Are Making: Overpricing Their House

In today's housing market, many sellers are making a critical mistake: overpricing their houses.

Affordability

Mortgage Rates Down a Full Percent from Recent High

There’s big news for mortgage rates. After the latest reports on the economy, inflation, the unemployment rate, and the Federal Reserve’s recent comments, mortgage rat… Read more

Pricing

Are Home Prices Going To Come Down?

Today’s headlines and news stories about home prices are confusing and make it tough to know what’s really happening.

Selling Tips

Why Fixing Up Your House Can Help It Sell Faster

If you’re thinking about selling your house, you should know there are buyers who are ready and able to pay today’s high prices. But they want a home that’s move-in r… Read more

Work With Us

Get assistance in determining current property value, crafting a competitive offer, writing and negotiating a contract, and much more. Contact us today.