Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023

Pricing Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group September 13, 2023



Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.

While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the ‘unicorn’ years, nationally, home prices didn’t come crashing down. If anything, prices were a lot more resilient than many people expected.

Let's take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.

Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now

This visual shows the 2023 home price forecasts from seven organizations. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late 2022) for what would happen to home prices by the end of this year and their most recently revised 2023 forecasts (see chart below):

As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers.

There are a number of reasons why home prices are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First Americansays:

“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge - your primary household expense doesn't change when inflation rises - and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”

A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines

For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s seasonality to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.

As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.

Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating.

Bottom Line

The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Let’s connect so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.

This blog post previously appeared on https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/09/05/expert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023?a=106260-312309902871c1f0d820820f58bf8fde. The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. and the Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. and the Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

Recent Blog Posts

Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

Selling Tips

The #1 Thing Sellers Need To Know About Their Asking Price

When you put your house on the market, you want to sell it quickly and for the best price possible.

A white kitchen with a stove and a sink. The kitchen has stainless steel appliances and granite countertops.

For Buyers

4 Ways To Make an Offer That Stands Out This Spring

Here are some top tips your agent will share with you that are helping buyers stand out (and win) in today’s market.

Downsize

Does Your Current Home Fit Your Retirement Plans?

Retirement isn’t just a milestone. It's the beginning of something really special.

Buying Tips

Why Pre-Approval Is More Important Than Ever This Spring

If you want to put yourself in the best position to buy, there’s one step you can’t afford to skip, and that’s getting pre-approved for a mortgage.

Buying Tips

What You Need To Know About Homeowner’s Insurance

Homeowner’s insurance is a must-have to protect what’s probably your biggest investment – your home.

For Sellers

The Best Week To List Your House Is Almost Here – Are You Ready?

If selling your house is on your to-do list this year, the time to start prepping is now.

For Sellers

Why a Pre-Listing Inspection May Be Worth It in Today’s Market

It pays to anticipate potential issues before buyers ever step through the door. And one way to do that is with a pre-listing inspection.

For Buyers

Is a Newly Built Home Right for You? The Pros and Cons

Right now, there are more newly built homes to choose from than there would normally be in the market.

A large white house with white shutters in a field.

Pricing

Do You Know How Much Your Home Is Worth?

Over the past few years, you’ve probably seen a whole lot of headlines about how home prices keep going up. But have you ever stopped to think about what that actually… Read more

Work With Us

Get assistance in determining current property value, crafting a competitive offer, writing and negotiating a contract, and much more. Contact us today.