Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023

Pricing Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group September 13, 2023



Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.

While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the ‘unicorn’ years, nationally, home prices didn’t come crashing down. If anything, prices were a lot more resilient than many people expected.

Let's take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.

Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now

This visual shows the 2023 home price forecasts from seven organizations. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late 2022) for what would happen to home prices by the end of this year and their most recently revised 2023 forecasts (see chart below):

As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers.

There are a number of reasons why home prices are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First Americansays:

“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge - your primary household expense doesn't change when inflation rises - and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”

A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines

For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s seasonality to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.

As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.

Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating.

Bottom Line

The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Let’s connect so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.

This blog post previously appeared on https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/09/05/expert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023?a=106260-312309902871c1f0d820820f58bf8fde. The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. and the Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. and the Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.


Recent Blog Posts

Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

A large white house with a lot of windows. The house has a slate roof and two attached garages.

For Sellers

What To Do When Your House Didn’t Sell

If your listing expired and your house didn’t sell, it’s totally natural to feel a mix of frustration and disappointment. And as you’re working through that, you’re pr… Read more

Home Inspections

The Difference Between an Inspection and an Appraisal

While you may have a general idea of what an inspection is, maybe you’re not sure why you need one or how it’s different from an appraisal. Here’s an explainer of each… Read more

Housing Market Updates

Housing Market Forecast: What’s Ahead for the 2nd Half of 2024

As we move into the second half of 2024, here’s what experts say you should expect for home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales.

Buying Tips

What You Need To Know About Today’s Down Payment Programs

There's no denying it's gotten more challenging to buy a home, especially with today's mortgage rates and home price appreciation.

Luxury Market

The Sweet Spot for Buying Luxury Homes

If you’ve been looking for a home at the high end of your market, but haven’t found the right one, you may have put your search on hold. But according to recent data, … Read more

For Sellers

What To Expect if You Buy or Sell a Home This June

June is a busy month in the housing market because a lot of people buy and sell this time of year.

Home Buying

The Biggest Mistakes Buyers Are Making Today

An expert’s insights will help you avoid some of the most common mistakes homebuyers are making right now.

A cozy living room with two gray-colored couches facing a fireplace.

Pricing

Your Agent Is the Key To Pricing Your House Right [INFOGRAPHIC]

The asking price for your house can impact your bottom line and how quickly it sells.

Selling Tips

What More Listings Mean When You Sell Your House

The number of homes for sale is playing a big role in today’s housing market. And, if you’re considering whether or not to list your house, today’s limited supply is o… Read more

Work With Us

Get assistance in determining current property value, crafting a competitive offer, writing and negotiating a contract, and much more. Contact us today.