Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023

Pricing Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group September 13, 2023



Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.

While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the ‘unicorn’ years, nationally, home prices didn’t come crashing down. If anything, prices were a lot more resilient than many people expected.

Let's take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.

Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now

This visual shows the 2023 home price forecasts from seven organizations. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late 2022) for what would happen to home prices by the end of this year and their most recently revised 2023 forecasts (see chart below):

As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers.

There are a number of reasons why home prices are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First Americansays:

“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge - your primary household expense doesn't change when inflation rises - and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”

A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines

For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s seasonality to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.

As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.

Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating.

Bottom Line

The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Let’s connect so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.

This blog post previously appeared on https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/09/05/expert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023?a=106260-312309902871c1f0d820820f58bf8fde. The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. and the Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. and the Laura Miller Edwards Realty Group will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.


Recent Blog Posts

Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

A kitchen with a large island in the middle, stools, and a stove

For Buyers

Is Wall Street Buying Up All the Homes in America?

While it’s true that institutional investors are a player in the single-family rental marketplace, they’re not buying up all of the houses on the market.

Buying Myths

People Are Still Moving, Even with Today’s Affordability Challenges

It’s true that buying a home has become more expensive over the past couple of years, but people are still moving.

For Buyers

How VA Loans Can Help Make Homeownership Dreams Come True

For more than 79 years, Veterans Affairs (VA) home loans have helped millions of veterans buy their own homes.

For Buyers

Thinking About Using Your 401(k) To Buy a Home?

Before you decide to dip into your retirement to buy a home, be sure to consider all possible alternatives and talk with a financial expert.

Buying Myths

Unmasking Scary Myths about Today’s Housing Market [INFOGRAPHIC]

Here’s what you really need to know about a few myths causing fear in today’s housing market.

For Sellers

Key Skills You Need Your Listing Agent To Have

The key to a successful sale is finding the perfect listing agent to work with you throughout the process.

Demographics

Are Grandparents Moving To Be Closer to Their Grandkids?

Now that the pandemic has passed, many grandparents want more than ever to be near their grandchildren.

morgs

First Time Home Buyers

Beginning with Pre-Approval

Getting pre-approved is an important first step when you’re buying a home.

For Buyers

Why Is Housing Inventory So Low?

The low supply of homes for sale isn’t a new challenge. There are a number of long-term and short-term factors leading to the current inventory deficit.

Work With Us

Get assistance in determining current property value, crafting a competitive offer, writing and negotiating a contract, and much more. Contact us today.